France's Real Estate Market: Home Prices Decline Slows in 2024

New notaire data reveals a slowing decline in house prices across France, with a -0.6% drop in early 2024, signaling potential market stabilization.

In the early months of 2024, the France’s real estate landscape has witnessed a notable decline in house prices, albeit at a decelerating rate, as evidenced by the latest data from notaires. The figures reveal a modest decrease of -0.6% in property values between the first and second quarters of 2024, a stark contrast to the more pronounced drop of -1.6% observed from the final quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. 

Over the span of a year, from spring 2023 to spring 2024, the trend persists, with non-new build houses experiencing price reductions in nearly all urban centers, save for a select few outliers. This phenomenon is emblematic of the broader property market downturn that characterized the years 2022 and 2023. The data, sourced from French notaires, represents the most extensive repository of information regarding the property market, although it is worth noting that the compilation process necessitates a lag, with the most recent figures reflecting sales up to two quarters prior to publication—specifically, up to June 30, 2024. 

The analysis focuses on the variance in median property prices during the second quarter of 2024 (April 1 - June 30) compared to the same period in 2023. The findings indicate a pervasive decline in property values across all regions and city sizes. Notably, Nantes stands out with a staggering double-digit price drop of -10.4%, a trend that many cities mirrored at the onset of 2024. Following Nantes, the most significant declines were recorded in:

- Corse-du-Sud and Limoges (-9.8%)

- Châteauroux (-9%)

- Reims (-8.6%)

Conversely, only a handful of locales managed to defy the downward trend, with Le Havre leading the charge with a commendable price increase of +6%. Other cities on the upswing included Nîmes (+5.7%) and Amiens (+3.3%), while Réunion, an overseas territory, experienced a price rise of +4.3%.

Despite the overarching slump in prices, the southern regions of France continue to dominate the property market, with three areas surpassing the €400,000 median property value threshold:

- Toulon (€441,000)

- Corse-du-Sud (€428,800)

- Lyon (€400,000)

The subsequent trio of most expensive areas—Montpellier, Marseille/Aix-en-Provence, and Bordeaux—also reside in the south. It is pertinent to mention that Paris is encapsulated within a broader measurement for Île-de-France, where the average prices in the suburbs contribute to a dilution of the capital's typically exorbitant property values. Furthermore, cities such as Nice, which predominantly feature apartments rather than houses, are excluded from the house price data.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, central France continues to be the bastion of affordability, as evidenced by the cheapest cities identified in the latest notaire release:

- Châteauroux: (€124,300)

- Limoges (€160,000)

- Tours (€166,300)

While the France’s real estate market grapples with the repercussions of previous downturns, the nuances of regional variations and the interplay of urban dynamics continue to shape the landscape, leaving both buyers and sellers to navigate a complex and evolving terrain.